This week Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu faces one of his most decisive meetings with US President Donald Trump.
He is one of Washington’s most frequent flyers but Netanyahu’s trip could leave his political career shattered, along with hopes of a quick end to the Iran crisis.
All the time he has to maintain pressure on Iran’s nuclear programme upon which Trump and Netanyahu’s defence of the war rests. It all has major implications for the UK in terms of the economy, future military back-up to secure the Strait of Hormuz, the growing terror threat from Iran’s proxies and elusive Middle East peace, which affects us all.
War in Iran, domestic strife, Gaza and escalations in the West Bank, the neighbouring Hezbollah threat and growing anger with Netanyahu’s government make this a crucial event.
US President Donald Trump was sold a nightmare, a quagmire war, falling for what no other President has fallen for. He was convinced and told the world that it was the case, that the Iran nuclear threat was just around the corner and that the conflict could easily be won.
Domestically it is a disaster for Trump with three-quarters of Americans surveyed in a recent poll saying they thought the Trump administration has had more difficulty navigating the conflict than expected.
Latest casualty analysis lists 14 troops killed and 417 wounded during Operation Epic Fury. A new and manipulative “Overseas Operations” category covering incidents since July 7 lists four additional deaths and 207 wounded.
Both categories combined produces a total of 18 dead and 624 wounded but the Pentagon has not confirmed that all 207 wounded listed in the new category were wounded by Iran.
Against all of this Netanyahu has to appear strong, best friends with Trump, getting just the right amount of fawning in without overdoing it and securing Israel’s powerful ally.
All the time with everyone in the same room knowing that Trump fell for it last time and is far less willing to do it again. He will try to convince Trump that latest intelligence suggests Iranian leader Motjaba Khamenei is seeking nuclear weapons – more so than his slain father.
He has a monumental task ahead of him, an audience with Trump he has long been lobbying for weeks for whilst claiming his visit is really about attending the funeral for late Senator Lyndsey Graham.
Netanyahu will have been briefed almost to the point of derision by his diplomats on Trumps’ mood, his mercurial views and talking points, intelligence assessments of what is really happening inside Iran.
Even Trump’s bellicose hubris cannot protect him against the truth, that Iran is by many metrics winning the crisis over the Strait of Hormuz.
Trump has beefed up America’s military presence in the region massively in the past week, his finger poised on the button to escalate and Netanyahu will be trying to force it downward, to keep pressure on Tehran, both men knowing the war is an immensely difficult prospect domestically.
Netanyahu knows he has to get the tone right, to bolster military pressure on Iran, least convincing of all, suggesting the war can be won on Trump’s terms.
This meeting could be masterful, the arch manipulator and vastly superior political intellect of Netanyahu rubbing up against Trump’s fragile ego.
An ego through which the bloody truth about the Iran conflict, that it is winning and Netanyahu only uses the truth when convenient, must surely have penetrated.
Israel’s domestic elections in October, which are seemingly touch and go for Netanyahu mean he is struggling against a powerful opposition.
Britain Israel Communication and Research Centre – BICOM – this morning said: “For some supporters, he is the greatest leader the country has ever had, combining supreme intellect, communications skills and unmatched experience. For others he is a lying manipulator that places self-interest above those of the country.”
Both of these aspects of his character will be used to the maximum tomorrow and the outcome will have implications for us all. Britain, as the US’s junior and vulnerable partner, is in the firing line and Iran has said as much.
This is in response to Britain’s RAF Fairford, in Gloucestershire, being identified as the air force base from where B1 bombers took off last week for a raid on Iran.
There is real concern in Washington that Trump may still give the go-ahead for a major escalation in Iran and Netanyahu will want to influence that. The fascinating theatre of tomorrow’s meeting with Trump has implications well beyond the political ambitions of both leaders.
