Africa’s two biggest economies are expected to weather the immediate impact of the new United States tariffs, but economists say the measures reinforce a broader shift towards higher trade barriers that could force Nigeria and South Africa to diversify export markets and deepen regional trade.
The analysts in both countries argue that while the latest tariffs announced by US President Donald Trump on Thursday are unlikely to significantly hurt exports because many key products remain exempt, they highlight a changing global trade environment in which African economies can no longer rely heavily on traditional markets.
The measures, announced under Section 301 of the US Trade Act, impose tariffs of up to 12.5 percent on imports from countries Washington says have failed to effectively prohibit goods produced with forced labour.
About 60 economies, including Nigeria and South Africa, are affected, marking another escalation in Trump’s trade agenda after earlier reciprocal tariffs were struck down by US courts.
Despite the announcement, the economists in both countries expect the direct economic impact to be limited because their largest exports to the US remain largely outside the scope of the new tariffs.
In Africa’s most populous nation, the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE) said the measures are unlikely to significantly dent export earnings or foreign exchange inflows because petroleum products, which account for more than 80 percent of Nigeria’s exports to the United States, are exempt.
“The direct economic implications are expected to be modest,” said Muda Yusuf, founder and chief executive officer of the CPPE in a statement on Sunday.
He noted that America is only Nigeria’s fifth-largest export destination. The first-quarter 2026 trade data show exports to the US accounted for 5.56 percent of Nigeria’s total exports, behind India (13.09 percent), France (9.29 percent), the Netherlands (9.22 percent) and Spain (7.68 percent).
Although manufacturers and agricultural exporters could lose some competitiveness in the US market, Yusuf said the affected products represent only a small share of Nigeria’s exports and are therefore unlikely to materially affect overall export earnings or macroeconomic performance.
South Africa is expected to experience a similarly muted impact.
Economists say many of the country’s major exports—including products already covered under Section 232 tariffs such as vehicles, steel and aluminium, as well as pharmaceuticals, agricultural products, critical minerals, precious metals and platinum group metals—have been excluded from the latest measures.
“South Africa’s economic growth trajectory is expected to escape the latest round of US tariffs relatively unscathed,” said Raymond Parsons, economist at North-West University to BusinessDay South Africa.
Parsons said the tariffs nevertheless strengthen the case for South Africa to reduce its reliance on the US market. “While US-South Africa economic relations remain significant for both countries, it is plain that South Africa must now continue to pursue assertive trade and supply chain diversification strategies,” he said.
He urged Pretoria to accelerate trade under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), deepen commercial ties with Europe and Asia, and leverage partnerships through BRICS.
“Accelerating market diversification is now the name of the game,” Parsons said.
The agriculture sector in the continent’s largest economy, one of the industries most exposed to the US market, is also expected to remain resilient.
Wandile Sihlobo, chief economist at Agbiz, said the 12.5 percent tariff is considerably lower than the 30 percent tariff South African exporters faced for much of 2025. “The new 12.5 percent tariff is not desirable, but it is still much better and more aligned with some of our competitors,” he said, noting that countries such as Australia, Peru and Chile face similar tariff levels.
For policymakers, economists say the bigger issue extends beyond the latest measures.
The CPPE which is also a private sector think tank noted that the tariffs reflect a global trading system that is becoming increasingly fragmented as countries rely more heavily on industrial policy, tariffs and other trade restrictions to protect domestic industries.
It urged Nigeria to accelerate export diversification, strengthen manufacturing competitiveness, deepen domestic value addition and expand trade under the AfCFTA, while improving labour standards and supply chain transparency to reduce future trade risks.
For Africa’s two largest economies, the lesson is clear: the immediate impact of Trump’s tariffs may be manageable, but the longer-term challenge is adapting to a world where market access is becoming more uncertain. That is likely to make export diversification, stronger regional value chains and deeper intra-African trade increasingly central to their growth strategies.
